Protect the capacity to act
Liquidity, position sizing and a clear hierarchy of risks matter most when markets stop behaving as expected.
Investment approach
Building portfolios for uncertainty.
An investment approach that balances antifragility, convexity, durable income, diversification and an awareness of investor behaviour.
The unwinding of the TMT cycle from 2001 remains an important reference point. It showed how genuine innovation can coexist with valuations detached from fundamentals, and why a compelling narrative never replaces disciplined analysis.
The subprime crisis reinforced a lasting focus on leverage, liquidity, correlations and the incentives that can make risk difficult to see while conditions remain favourable. The objective is not to forecast every disruption, but to preserve the capacity to act when assumptions are challenged.
This perspective informs a patient approach to portfolio construction: seek robustness first, then allow conviction to be expressed within a clear risk framework.
Principles
Building portfolios for uncertainty.
Look for convexity without fragility
Favour asymmetries that preserve optionality while avoiding structures whose apparent stability depends on one scenario.
Value durable income
Dividend yield can support long-term compounding when it is assessed alongside balance-sheet quality, valuation and sustainability.
Diversify sources of risk
Diversification is useful only when it remains meaningful under stress, not merely when asset labels appear different.
Take behaviour seriously
Crowding, overconfidence and forced selling can reshape outcomes more quickly than a spreadsheet suggests.
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Relevant dialogue
This perspective is intended as a starting point for professional conversations with family offices and European or Brazilian asset managers around portfolio construction, risk and long-term capital allocation.
This page presents general investment perspectives. It is not investment research, a recommendation, an offer or a solicitation.
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